Burundi - few people around the world know anything about, probably not even roughly where it is on the map. But the 9 million people of Burundi should be known for their remarkable peace process after a genocide in the 1990s that took about 300.000 lives. That is, if the media and politicians had ever had any focus on this country and not only on Rwanda, their “darling” north of Burundi.

These very days and hours the risk is increasing that the world will hear about Burundi, not because of its good aspects but because of its political instability, threatening to break out in countrywide violence.

Burundi is the third poorest country in the world with a GDP per capita of about $ 150 per year. It’s peace process was mediated by towering figures such as Tanzania’s then president Julius Nyerere, by Nelson Mandela and others. A power sharing arrangement was agreed upon among 17 armed fractions that had been fighting each other. That is, with the exception of Agathon Rwasa, the warlord of FNL, a riffraff military unit, that kept on for years to intimidate the people and the peace by firing rockets on the capital Bujumbura and elsewhere. Amateur politician as he seems to be, he didn’t understand the timing of the process and stood alone outside. He is connected with a series of serious crimes during the genocide and is known for using child soldiers. He finally agreed to lay down arms and join politics.

Contrary to Burundi, its sister country in all ways, Burundi has been forgotten by the world in spite of its overall good - but certainly far from perfect - record. Five years ago, successful and peaceful elections were held that brought Pierre Nkurunziza to the Presidency - also a former fighter but one who publicly apologized for what he did (after several members of his family had been killed); he is still rather popular throughout the country, a born-again Christian obsessed with football. He was used to get out among people without much security and talk and sing with them. I got a rather good impression of him during a conversation some years ago.

The other side of the coin is that during his regime there has been rampant corruption, little real progress, too little of the kind of leadership people want and need in such a country. On the other hand, there are good indicators now and the Burundi has joined the East African Community that will definitely be a benefit to it in years to come.

Burundi is lay back. The human rights record has improved and it has a few reliable and very competent civil society movements. Women have progressed but it is still and seriously gender-violent society. The media are way behind European and other African standard but there is little clamping down by the government compared to many other countries, not the least Rwanda. The news these days coming out of Rwanda prior to its August elections also give reason for serious concern. Mr. Kagame however is the darling of the West, continues to do some dirty jobs in DR Congo and has the support of leading Western governments who always place human rights way below their strategic and economic interests.

Elections is also the key word to the present quite volatile situation in Burundi. This summer it is scheduled to hold elections at five levels. In late May the first local elections were held and deemed fair and free under the circumstances by both the tiny UN mission in the country, by EU observers and by the NGO Coalition for the Elections, run by very competent people.

Everybody agree that the organization of the first elections left a lot to be desired; they were postponed two times over a weekend because ballots, voters’ lists etc. had not reached their different stations throughout the bush. So, undoubtedly, the elections were not perfect, but rather mis-managed - as so much else in Burundi. If you want a nutshell description of the government’s infrastructure, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs - I was told last year - had one computer connected with the Internet and then there are frequent electricity cuts and lack of water for periods to produce electricity...

However, opposition leaders have complained that these elections which ended with 64% to the governing party, were the result of rampant, countrywide and systematic fraud. As far as I know no solid evidence of exactly that has been delivered to the National Commission that overseas the elections and their claim has found no support abroad.

I doubt the substance too. To rig elections and make the manipulation invisible to yur people, civil servants and international observers you need a very efficient organization into every corner of a country, something like a dictatorship. Burundi’s governing party simply does not have that capacity. A government that cannot get the ballots out in time is hardly able to systematically manipulate elections results and do it in a way that makes it look like everything is OK. But irregularities here and there - sure!

The opposition parties have decided to boycott the next elections - that of the President on June 28. Nkurunziza is, therefore, the only candidate. The only thing the opposition can possibly have in common is that they don’t like the government; you could hardly find two more different characters than war criminal Agathon Rwasa and brilliant journalist Alexis Sinduhije. And quite predictably they have not issued anything like an alternative program and there is no way you could imagine them working together as a government.

There has been several small-scale instances of local violence, mostly against offices of the ruling party. Some innocent people have been killed. The minister of defence expresses his deep concern of what could be looming around the corner. UN S-G Ban Ki Moon came by for a few hours lately and spoke with no effect - boring to the Moon, you may say.

There is a fairly big risk now that hotheads will instigate violence at poll stations. With a bad economic situation for most of the people, there isn’t much to lose. In countries such as Burundi, it only takes a few politicians and the manipulation of young, uneducated people to start a fire that no one will eventually be able to control, let alone put out.

Here is a case that demonstrates how woefully ill equipped the so-called international community remains in spite of all assertions to the contrary. Leading international figures could threaten - not sanctions on the people, but - abrogation of all but humanitarian assistance if war breaks out (the international community has anyhow never met even 50% of its assistance pledge!).

But much better would be to promise massive international support in various ways if the opposition gives up its destructive stance and to demand, if necessary, that a considerable international African and/or UN police force + civil affairs mission be deployed as soon as humanly possible. Nkurunziza and the government has asked most of the UN to leave, claining that it could now do on its own. If it can’t, there is all reason to negotiate a return - a large return but without military component.

The rule of thumb is: Start early and the fire can be prevented or may be manageable both locally and internationally. Start late and we may see another genocide. Objectively speaking, it would only harm 99,99% of the people.

And that is my final point. The people of Burundi do not want, even for one hour, to see another bout of killings, rapes and genocidal madness. They’ve had enough. I travelled around the country now and then over the last ten years, and if you ask people what they want for the future, they don’t first mention new clothes, a house, good school for their children or a car. No - they say, peace and peace and peace again. And they deserve it. They need safety, education, health, environmental care, gender equality and everyting else that war can never bring. They need food - plain and simple.

And the international community has never lived up to its minimum responsibility vis-a-vis this country that has shown so much human progress against all odds.

The Burundians have managed to live rather peacefully together again, using ancient village rituals and other means to dialogue and accommodate their mad recent history, to switch houses back and forth in order to welcome back refugees from neighbouring countries. I’ve seen much more tolerance and forgiveness - perhaps also because of their deep faith - than I have seen anywhere in former Yugoslavia (that has received billions of dollars and huge international attention). I’ve had taught and worked with youth - university as well as street kids - and they give me a sense of hope for the future.

Burundi’s situation is now very fragile, perhaps dangerous. We don’t know it. But it would be utterly stupid if the international community does not step in and DO something to prevent another war. I hope my early warning here will turn out to be wrong and everything will go well. Even so, better be on the safe side and commit massive violence-prevention today than having to see 10 years of peace-building nullified by a few amateur hotheads and a new war that will set back the country another 20 years. The thought is unbearable to me!

Perhaps you believe that I support the government. I don’t. Neither do I support the opposition. These are irrelevant positions. My judgement is that it is the welfare and peace for the 9 million people rather than the short-sighted games of elites that should count. That is why Burundi today needa the attention of BBC an CNN and Aljazeera and of capable, serious international organisations.

However, if I imagine that I am a Burundian farmer with five kids, I think I would would vote for the present ruling party and President Nkurunziza - in spite of all the evident, serious shortcomings - because the opposition has already shown that it has nothing more constructive to offer than obstruction and, potentially, destabilization. That is as irresponsible as it is dangerous in the midst of a very complex peace process inside a country that is seeing only the embryo of democracy for the first time.

With my love of this country and its people, I cannot but write this early warning to anyone who cares to listen: Please do violence-prevention now! Please help keep Burundi on its track to peace and democracy. Please put the needs of the 9 million citizens on top of your agenda! And remember it is cheaper and more effective to do prevention today than doing repair work the next 20 or so years!


Jan Oberg
TFF director

Jan Oberg has been in an out of Burundi for the last 11 years working with civil society organisations, the Ministry of Higher Education, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and today with street kids and the Amahoro Youth Club.