COTE D'IVOIRE AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY: TOWARDS UNPRECEDENTED POLITICO-DIPLOMATIC DILEMMAS?

This discussion aims to engage peace lovers on the current political situation in Cote d'Ivoire. It highlights the contextual complexities to reconcile various political and diplomatic interests in a context where election outcomes are being contested by two co-claimants presidents. The core argument herein is that, dialogue between both Laurent Gbagbo and Alassane Ouattara, under the supervision of the international community, is the key to unlock the situation.The objective is a short perspective to contribute to the ongoing debate in conflict prevention and resolution.

The political and diplomatic deadlocks currently in Côte d’Ivoire are far from being a unique phenomenon in Africa. However, the extent to which the puzzles and the ingredients for a prospective conflict are being assembled under our eyes is quite unique. In my view, an unfortunate element rests on the fact that the international community is put to the contribution to create a prospective conflictual situation. I argue that, the various sanctions taken in favour of one candidate to the expense of the other are possible contributing factors able to exacerbate the possibility of conflict. Also, I point out that, in failing to promote dialogue and strive to negotiate for peace between the two co-claimants presidents, the international community may find itself at the heart of one of the bloodiest conflict in which civil population will pay the ultimate price. I put forward a few illustrative scenarios that are likely to elucidate the above arguments. First, if Ouattara succeeds, with the help of the international community, to take control of the institutions of the country, it is possible that the pro-Gbagbo supporters may play their last card to safeguard the presidential power. It is foreseeable that, this scenario may result to ethnic and religious violence that may start from Abidjan spreading to Bouake, Yamoussoukro and elsewhere in the Côte d’ivoire. Secondly, if an attempt is made by Laurent Gbagbo to force out Outtara from the Golf Hotel Ressort [1] in Abidjan, this might push the Country’s Army and its supporters to crash with the ONUCI and rebels forces. In such a scenario, the sanctions and international isolation of the Gbagbo’s regime could serve not as deterrence but as contributing factors to the outbreak of violence. Thirdly, if the international community remove s Gbagbo by force, it is likely that the implementation for such a strategy could be detrimental for local populations, and other foreign communities in Côte d’ivoire. Regarding the political and diplomatic deadlock in Côte d’ivoire, I advocate that dialogue between Gbagbo and Ouattara, assisted by the international community is the royal to conflict prevention.
The presidential elections held in Côte d’ivoire at the end of 2010 aimed to unite the country after the civil war which happened in 2002. The political history of that country illustrates the fact that civil conflict divided the world's largest cocoa producer in two. The North was predominantly Muslim supporting Mr Ouattara and the South mainly Christian was backing Mr Gbagbo. The later has been President since October 26, 2000. He took power following a popular uprising supporting his election victory after junta leader General Robert Guei who claimed a dubious victory in the 2000 presidential elections. Ever since, Gbagbo, has presided over the destiny of the country over 10 years with under the watchful eyes of its Prime Minister, Guillaume Soro, leader of the powerful rebel forces in the country.
Following the recent 2nd round of the presidential election held in November 2010, arguments about who ought to the president in Côte d’ivoire leads to constitutional or institutional stances. To date, the outcomes of these elections are still contested by both candidates and the political parties they represent. In the one hand, Alassane Outtara was declared the ʹlegitimateʹ winner by the IEC; in another hand, Laurent Gbagbo, backed by the Constitutional Council, was proclaimed as the ʹlegalʹ winner. Since then, both leaders are referred to by neutralists as co-claimant to the presidential seat. In such a political and diplomatic deadlocked situation, both leaders engaged in power contestation are setting a precedent by their position and political style. In this context, it depicts something very particular in an ethnic and religious polarized society where election outcomes become a contentious issue instead. Also, it appears that, for the geographically divided country, the control of Abidjan is the objective of both candidates currently. For Outtarra and its supporters, the control of Abidjan could be translated into the control of the entire Côte d’Ivoire. For Gbagbo’s supporters, losing Abidjan means losing control of the South; this includes losing control of personal or family assets. It becomes therefore plausible to argue that economic interests lie at the core of the current political deadlock.
Mr. Gbagbo has rejected widespread calls to step down; often he cited vote rigging in northern areas. The fact he has demanded UN and French troops [2] to leave its country with immediate effect indicates his intention to hold grips on State institutions. To finalise Gbagbo’s radical position, the international community is taking specific measures aimed to isolate the ʹself proclaimedʹ president’s regime. The French President Nicolas Sarkozy issued an official statement calling Gbagbo to respect the verdict of the polls [3]. Robert Zoellick, the World Bank President says that he had personally asked the West African bloc to freeze loans to Ivory Coast [4]. In practice, these measures seek to make it difficult to him to initiate and control the State public spending, Also, another measure aimed at obtaining Gbagbo’s international diplomatic isolation. In this context, the UN general assembly acknowledged and accredited Alassane Ouattara’s appointed Ambassador to the UN. The ultimate objective of this avalanche of sanctions and measures against Laurent Gbagbo is geared to one major goal: pushing the incumbent to leave the presidential power.
This is an unprecedented situation. In theoretical terms; it illustrates the crossroad between State sovereignty, international sanctions and International legal obligations regarding unsettled elections. However, it could be hypothesized that the lack of general character in the implementation of international sanctions and obligations is likely to loosen as time goes on if force is not used. As the international pressures and sanctions piled up on Laurent Gbagbo in Côte d’ivoire, the notion of State sovereignty would constantly be referred to by him and its sympathisers to justify its position. Comparatively, in the event of the outbreak of violence, a reference to the UN Principle embodied in the Right to Protect (R2P) would increasingly become the benchmark to establish the responsibility of the international community. Hence, the complexity of the political and diplomatic dilemmas of the situation in Côte d’ivoire.

The major players of the international community namely the United States of America (USA), the United Nations (UN), France, and many others members of the European Union are still backing one candidate at the expense of the other. By anticipation, this preferential treatment generates subsequent questions. Is the international community following an agenda pre-designed by some of its major actors? Why did the same avalanches of sanctions (as introduced by the International community in Cote d’ivoire) have not be dished to discipline incumbents dictators and authoritarian regimes in disputed elections in Egypt, Gabon, Guinea, Central African Republic, Togo, Burkina Faso, Equatorial Guinea, Cameroon, Benin, Zimbabwe, or Kenya and elsewhere in the African continent? Why does the stake so high in Côte d’ivoire and comparatively almost negligible in other part of Africa or the world? Is the current reaction capacity of the international community (as experienced in the context of Côte d’ivoire) representing the beginning of a new process that is to be generalised in situations where elections are contested? It is very early to draw any conclusion from the above questions. However, what seems to be certain is that, the current situation in one of the biggest French speaking countries in Africa has the merit to provoke further epistemological questions in the field of conflict prevention and resolution.

Endnotes: 

[1] In quantitative terms, the UN has more than 10,000 peacekeepers in the Côte d’ivoire

[2] See the speech made By Nicolas Sarkozy in 04 December, 2010  while in visit in India. Sarkozy says that 'the Independent Electoral Commission has announced the results, which signal a clear, indisputable victory for Alassane Ouattara... following this, President Obama and the European leaders, like me, saluted Alassane Ouattara’s victory'.

3 See BBC News, Abidjan. Edition 23 December 2010.